• Eurocontrol forecasts recovery of commercial flights this summer

    Here’s what to expect in the coming months… #FlyingAgain

Very good news for the global commercial aviation sector after a year and a half of the health and economic crisis caused by COVID-19. According to the European Organisation of Air Navigation Safety (Eurocontrol) this summer will see the recovery we were foreseeing in 2021.

With the great rhythm at which the vaccines are being administered, and the launch of the COVID Passport, which will allow free movement of the vaccinated, and these great pieces of news bring a breath of fresh air in the aviation and tourism sectors.

Positive data for the recovery of commercial aviation

According to Eamonn Brennan, general manager of Eurocontrol: ‘The massive demand for travel is evident, once the vaccinations advance and there are less travel restrictions, the volume of passengers will raise air traffic.’

To be more specific, if the implementation of the vaccine carries on at such a good rate, passenger volume could reach 70% of the levels we saw in August 2019, and that by the end of the year the traffic will return to 80% pre-pandemic levels. These are undoubtably great news for the sector.

IAG will lead the return of commercial flights in Europe

After news from the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who cleared restrictions for touristic flights from the second half of July, the stock value of some airlines has shot up.

It’s expected that International Airlines Group (IAG) which is the result of the fusion of the Spanish airline Iberia LAE and British Airways, leads the growth of European flights this summer, above Air France-KLM and Lufthansa.

Also, another great point toward the recovery is that USA is opening up international flights and passenger traffic with Europe which is a great situation for the airlines as well as other tourism businesses.

The European COVID Certificate, essential for opening up international flights

You can already apply for the digital Covid certificate from the EU, better known as the Covid passport. This document will allow travel between European countries as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

The COVID certificate is to accredit three possible situations of its owner: that they hold a negative test, that they’ve received a complete dosage of a vaccine approved by the European Medical Agency or that they’ve recovered from the illness.

Although not obligatory, this document will speed up the process of entry to countries, avoiding quarantines or extra testing which have been dissuading international travellers and has a negative effect on the economic recovery for the countries who have a high dependence on the service sector.

Air cargo airlines continue to grow

Alongside the situation the commercial airlines are facing, airline transport of merchandise is going through a continually positive time.

So much so that in January 2021 the volume of air cargo surpassed the levels of 2019 by 1.1%, and one month later, in February reached 9% more, the same levels as in 2018.

If we look in to the reason of these figures, we find the increase of the global production index which is at pre-pandemic levels to which we also must add the mass transport of vaccines.

Updated reports of growth in worldwide commercial aviation

This post has given you a global summary of the situation, however there are many factors influencing the growth of commercial aviation at a global level.

So, if you’re looking to read more, we recommend you read our post where we do an exhaustive analysis of the forecast for different economic zones.

There we explain the passenger volume values, the growth in employment of aeronautical personnel, the proliferation of new transport routes or the volume of new passenger aircraft orders.